Challenge
Swedish distribution operators needed regulator-credible infrastructure-demand forecasts for Energy Markets Inspectorate reporting, without the data burden of a bespoke modeling project.
My contribution
I designed the methodology and sole-built the Excel product, mapping three official government scenarios against energy consumption and EV-ownership projections to create low, mid and high demand forecasts.
Approach
Anchored assumptions in three official government electrification scenarios so the outputs were defensible for regulatory reporting.
Reduced the required user input to two public data points: current population and the municipality's growth designation from SCB or equivalent public sources.
Built low, mid and high projections with embedded instructions so operators could run the model without consulting support.
Outcome
Approximately 40 of Sweden's 155 distribution operators adopted the model during its first commercial year.
Deliverables
- Forecast methodology
- Self-service Excel product
- Three demand scenarios
- Embedded user guidance
